Baltimore @ Minnesota (Sunday, 1:00 ET, CBS)

The Ravens are coming off a heartbreaking loss to division foes Cincinnati and desperately want to revive a suddenly stagnant offense, while the Vikings are trying to stay unbeaten before two consecutive tough road trips to Pittsburgh and Green Bay.  The unit that will decide this game is the Baltimore Ravens Offense.

New York Giants @ New Orleans (Sunday, 1:00 ET, Fox)

The only big-time contest of the weekend is this meeting of two undefeated NFC foes.  The Saints are coming off a bye week after handing the Jets their first loss and would love to give the other New York team theirs as well.  The Giants have spent the last three weeks dominating bad teams and face their biggest test of the season so far in this game.  The Saints lead the league in scoring and they won’t be changing their philosophy now, making the New York Giants Defense the unit that will decide this game.

Carolina @ Tampa Bay (Sunday, 1:00 ET, Fox)

If you missed last week’s puntastic Cleveland @ Buffalo debacle, check out the sequel as the Panthers and Buccaneers (combined record: 1-8) try to figure out if they could field a competitive team by joining forces (Hint: they couldn’t).

Other Games of Potential Interest:

Chicago @ Atlanta (Sunday, 8:20 ET, NBC):  Two 3-1 teams look to pick up some momentum before crucial mid-season games.

St. Louis @ Jacksonville (Sunday, 1:00 ET, Fox)/Kansas City @ Washington (Sunday, 1:00 ET, CBS):  Two winless teams with a shot at that first victory on the road.

Denver @ San Diego (Monday, 8:30 ET, ESPN):  Can the Broncos stay unbeaten on a Monday night road trip?

So, yeah, last week didn’t go so well.  I went 2-5, which is bad, but overall I’m still 13-8, a pretty respectable record.  There’s no time to second-guess myself though; I’ve got to just put this stumble behind me and flip on.

Cincinnati @ South Florida:  It’s no secret that this game will likely decide the Big East championship.  Both teams are ranked, undefeated, scoring more 35 and giving up fewer than 14 points a game.  While the Bulls probably can’t make it to the BCS title game, the Bearcats have a shot if they win out.  South Florida by 3.

Oklahoma vs. Texas:  The Red River Shootout is one of the top rivalries in college football and this year’s edition should be another thriller.  Despite having two losses already, Oklahoma is a better team with Heisman-winning QB Sam Bradford taking the snaps, and this game comes just in time to put himself back in the race for another trophy.  The Longhorns’ Colt McCoy would like one of those trophies too and is probably the leader right now.  Don’t expect him to give it up easily. Texas by 3.

Southern Cal @ Notre Dame:  For Notre Dame head coach Charlie Weis, this is easily the most important game of his career.  While he doesn’t necessarily need to win, he is almost guaranteed to be fired if his team gets blown out by the Trojans again.  For USC, this game is like every other game on their schedule, another chance to improve their position (and stay) in the national title race.  USC by 10.

Other Games:  South Carolina over Alabama, Georgia Tech over Virginia Tech, Iowa over Wisconsin, Nebraska over Texas Tech.

The Chad Henne Era has officially begun in Miami.  In yet another Monday night thriller, the Dolphins QB followed up a nice performance against the Bills with a downright brilliant outing against one of the league’s top 5 pass defenses.  Henne completed almost 77% of his passes for 241 yards, throwing 2 TDs and no INTs.  His 130.4 QB rating was the fourth-best showing of the weekend.

In many ways, surprising Denver QB Kyle Orton outplayed superstar Tom Brady on Sunday en route to a huge overtime win over the Patriots.  Orton attempted 15 more passes than Brady and completed 15% more of them.  Orton threw for over 100 more yards and .4 more yards per attempt, and 5 of the 6 receivers he hit had at least 4 catches (only Wes Welker had more than 3 for the Pats).

I don’t think the Bengals have been involved in a game this year that didn’t end in dramatic fashion.  In Week 1, a freak late TD by Denver (off a tipped pass) gave Cincinnati their only loss so far.  In Week 2, the Packers nearly scored with 2 seconds left, felled by a false start penalty.  Week 3 brought the huge victory over the rival Steelers on a Carson Palmer TD pass with 14 seconds left.  In Week 4, the Bengals were entangled in an ugly tie with the Browns, until a late Palmer scramble set up the winning FG with just a few seconds remaining in overtime.

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

This week, Cincinnati faced another division game and a win against the dominant Ravens would solidify the Bengals lead in the AFC North and provide a ton of momentum for the rest of the season.  As the third quarter closed, the Bengals held a 10-7 lead that was more solid than it seems.  The Cincy D had held the usually prolific Baltimore offense to 0 points–their only score coming on an interception return.  Then, with just seven minutes remaining in the game, Ravens QB Joe Flacco hit RB Ray Rice for a 48-yard TD to take the lead.  Back-breaking?  Maybe for any other team, but the Bengals held true to form, trading stalled drives with Baltimore before taking the ball at the 25 with just over 2 minutes left.  After a couple of major breaks (a recovered Palmer fumble and a big Baltimore penalty) in the final minute, Palmer hooked up with Andre Caldwell for the winning TD, with just 22 seconds left on the clock.

And Cincy fans exhaled, again.

And then there was the mockery of offensive football that was Cleveland @ Buffalo.  There were no touchdowns in the entire game, and of the eleven first half drives, 7 ended in a punt, 2 were 4th-down failures, and 1 led into halftime.  The other culminated with a 24-yard FG.  In the second half, the Browns and Bills added interceptions to their repertoire, each QB donating a pick to the other team, who of course had no idea what to do with it.  The two QBs managed to squeeze out a combined rating of 67.2, better than only 2 single QBs for the weekend.

But the story of the game boils down to this:  The Browns’ Derek Anderson completed just 2 of his 17 pass attempts for 23 yards.  And his team won.

By far the stud of this game was Cleveland punter Dave Zastudil (how could he not be?), who put an astounding 7 of his 9 boots inside the 20 yard line, including two that were downed at the 1.

Which brings to the bottom of the QB Barrel for Week 5, and there’s another shakeup in the muck.  Tampa Bay’s ineffective Josh Johnson has managed to bring his rating down to 57.1 for the year, landing him in the bottom three.  Tossing Johnson into the mix with stalwarts JaMarcus Russell, Jake Delhomme, and the Clevenstein monster Braderek Quinderson produces a season total of 9 TDs and 24 INTs.

The New Orleans Saints still lead the league with 36 points a game, while the Rams are pulling up the rear with 6.8.  Defensively, the Broncos hold steady, giving up 8.6 a game, while the Lions are allowing 32.4.

Undefeated Teams:  Indianapolis Colts, Denver Broncos, New York Giants, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints

Winless Teams:  Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, St. Louis Rams

When we take out teams that only have a single return touchdown, we are left with 13 teams.  These 13 teams are a combined 53-21 (71.6%) and include three of the Top 4, four of the top 10, and six of the Top 20.  Narrowing the field a little further to just teams that have at least one kick and one punt return touchdown, we get a group of 9 teams that are 37-13 (74%) and lose only #19 Georgia Tech from our group of ranked teams.

Looking back to last year, the overall numbers are not as high, but all teams with at least one return touchdown averaged winning 57% of their games, with number just slightly higher for teams with multiple return TDs and those with at least one of each.  More intriguing though is the fact that the group of 74 teams includes 20 of the final AP Top 25, and four of the absent five were #’s 22-25.  Of the Final AP Top 10, five had multiple return TDs, but only two of those were in the Top 5.

Not satisfied?  What if I told you that returning punts for TDs might be better than returning kickoffs?  So far this year, teams have returned a virtually even 34 punts and 33 kickoffs for TDs.  However, of the 13 ranked teams who have return TDs, only one (Ohio State) has more kickoff returns than punt returns (and that margin is 1-0).  Three (Florida, Cincinnati, and Oregon) have exactly one of each.  The remaining nine have more punt return TDs than kickoff return TDs.

In the entire group of 45 teams, those with more punt return TDs are a combined 87-35 (71.3%), while those with more kickoff return TDs are 54-54 (50%).  Last year, only three of the Top 10 teams had more kickoff return TDs than punt return TDs.  Of the 20 ranked teams with at least one return TD, 10 had more punt returns, 6 were even, and 4 had more kickoff returns.

So, the only question left is why?  While big plays always have a noticeable emotional impact on both the players and the crowd, return touchdowns are possibly the most exciting plays in football.  They often change the momentum of the game in a matter of seconds and it’s not surprising that teams that are able to score this way on multiple occasions tend to win a lot of games.

Personally, I think the reason that punt return TDs have a stronger correlation to winning than kickoff return TDs is because of why those two things happen.  There are two reasons for a kickoff: the beginning of a half or following a score.  If your team returns the opening kick for a TD, that momentum swing will fade long before the game is over.  Similarly, if your teams returns the second-half kick for a TD, it could be huge, but it’s just as possible that you’re already down too many points for it to matter.  If the kickoff TD follows a score by the other team, then its impact is already diminished, since it is at best a 4 point swing.

Punts, on the other hand, are a sign of failure on the part of your opponent.  They are punting because their drive stalled and are already disappointed.  Add a sudden score (always at least a 6-point scoring swing) on top of that and they are now deflated, especially if they were already behind or if the game was close.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (Sunday, 1:00 ET, CBS)

The surprising Bengals travel to take on the dominant Ravens in a matchup of two 3-1 teams battling for the top of their division.  Cincinnati is 2-0 on the road and Baltimore is 2-0 at home.  The unit that will decide this game is the Cincinnati Bengals Defense.

New England @ Denver (Sunday, 4:15 ET, CBS)

The Broncos have stunned the entire league with their 4-0 start, while the Patriots are performing about as well as expected at 3-1.  The Broncos defense has given up less than a TD per game so far this season, which means that the unit that will decide this game is the New England Patriots Offense.

Cleveland @ Buffalo (Sunday, 1:00 ET, CBS)

The Browns have as many wins as viable quarterbacks (zero) and just traded talented-but-underwhelming receiver Braylon Edwards to the Jets.  Meanwhile, Buffalo’s only win is over winless Tampa Bay and Terrell Owens is on pace to have fewer catches this season than his rookie year.  The unit that will decide this game is Whichever One Produces A Touchdown.

Teams Passing in Opposite Directions:

4-0 Minnesota @ 0-4 St. Louis (Sunday, 1:00 ET, Fox)

4-0 Indianapolis @ 0-4 Tennessee (Sunday, 8:20 ET, NBC)

3-1 New York Jets @ 1-3 Miami (Monday, 8:30 ET, ESPN)

The UFL, according to its official website, is where future stars come to play, although it looks more like where NFL players who got cut go to try to get uncut.  The most recognizable player on any of the four (yeah, four) teams’ rosters is probably former terrible Bills QB JP Losman.

Maybe the UFL will be able to survive and build into a solid developmental league for the NFL, but considering that their TV deals are apparently with Versus and HDNet, I’m guessing that this thing fizzles and fades faster than The Beautiful Life.
I mean, when there’s an article on your site called “The UFL Story: Low Expectations, High Hopes” and your poll question is which team logo is the best, failure is clearly a viable option.

I know you’re anxious to get to my latest work of genius, but first why not stop on by my brand new Facebook page and add me as a friend?  Now that we’ve got our social networking out of the way, let’s get this show on the road.

Nebraska @ Missouri:  It’s the Big Twelve opener for both teams, and it could be a good one.  Missouri’s 4-0 and averaging 37 points a game.  Nebraska’s one point away from being 4-0 and gives up just 7 points a game.  Nebraska has the talent edge, while Missouri has home-field advantage in a Thursday night game.  Nebraska by 13.

Alabama @ Mississippi:  This will be a crucial game in the battle for the top of the SEC West.  Alabama has been one of the most impressive teams in the country so far, with a 5-0 start and a big opening win over Virginia Tech.  Ole Miss has played 3 of their first 4 games on the road, but is still 3-1, with a 6-point loss to South Carolina.  Mississippi by 13.

Florida @ LSU:  The Big One.  A battle of conference rivals and two top 5 teams.  LSU wants badly to avenge the 51-21 beatdown the Gators administered last year, while Florida may have to keep their repeat title hopes alive without superstar QB Tim Tebow, who will likely be a game-time decision following a concussion suffered against Kentucky.  LSU by 3.

Other Games:  Boston College over Virginia Tech, Texas A&M over Oklahoma State, Ohio State over Wisconsin, Michigan over Iowa.

For this study, I’ve defined a fraud team as one that starts the season at least 4-0 and finishes with at least 5 losses.  In the past three seasons, 14 teams have met this criteria, all of them from BCS conferences.  These fraud teams tend to have at least one close win (by 7 or fewer points) during their hot start (only 2 of the 14 had no close wins) and their opponents’ winning percentage is usually around 40%.  They also tend suffer their first loss to a good team (average record: 4-1).  The good news is that these teams have all made bowl games and 8 of the 14 won their bowls, with another 3 losing theirs by 3 points or less.

So, who are this year’s fraud teams? There are currently 11 undefeated BCS conference teams:  Cincinnati, South Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Florida, LSU, Auburn, Alabama.  Of those, five (Cincy, USF, Texas, Florida, Bama) have not had a close win yet this season, so for now I’m knocking them out of the running.  The remaining six all have early-season resumés that fall in line with the prototypical fraud team.  Below is my ranking of those teams, from most to least likely to be a fraud:

1. Wisconsin – With maybe the shakiest 5-0 record in recent memory, the Badgers are a disaster waiting to happen.  They have two 3-point wins over Fresno State and Minnesota and two 8-point wins over Northern Illinois and Michigan State.  The only team they’ve dominated is 1-4 Wofford of the FCS.  In all, their opponents have won 42% of their games.  Wisconsin travels to 4-1 Ohio State this weekend for a game that will likely define the direction of their season.

2. Missouri – The Tigers have built their 4-0 start by downing opponents that have won just 33% of their games.  Their close win over 1-4 Bowling Green in week 2 is a big red flag.  This week they face 3-1 Nebraska.

3. Auburn – The other Tigers are 5-0 with just one close game (their only road game so far), but their opponents have only won 39% of their games.  With two more road games in their next three and three ranked teams in the second half of their season, they’re all set up for a classic fraud finish.  Could 2-2 Arkansas pull off the shocker this weekend?

4. Kansas – Their closest game was against their best opponent, a good sign for the Jayhawks.  Still, their opponents have won just 40% of their games and Kansas is looking at a beastly end-run.  After hosting 3-2 Iowa State this week, the Jayhawks will either be playing on the road or against a ranked team for the rest of the season.

5. LSU – Their 5-0 start includes two close wins, over 2-3 Mississippi State and 3-2 Georgia.  2-3 Washington also gave the other other Tigers a run for their money in week one, an 8-point win for LSU.  Their opponents have won a respectable 46% of their games however and while LSU probably won’t run the table, they’re likely to avoid the fraud file this year.  #1 Florida (4-0) comes to town this weekend.

6. Iowa – The Hawkeyes’ 5-0 opening has a lot of people wondering who this team really is.  They’ve put up convincing wins against three BCS conference opponents while just scraping by against FCS Northern Iowa and Arkansas State of the Sun Belt.  Their biggest boost comes from the fact that their opponents have won 65% of their games, easily the best slate of the bunch.  If they get past 4-1 Michigan this weekend, then they probably don’t lose more than 2 games.

I’ve developed a rating that measures a team’s overall balance between offense and defense and individual balances between rushing and passing on each side of the ball.  Below, I’ve listed the top ten most and least balanced ranked teams in each category.

Rankings are based on current AP poll.  Letter in parentheses indicates direction of imbalance (R-more run, P-more pass, O-better offense, D-better defense)

Offense

Most Balanced:  #9 Ohio State (R), #25 South Carolina(R), #14 Penn State (R), #23 South Florida (P), #5 Boise State (R), #15 Oklahoma State (R), #20 Mississippi (P), #12 Iowa (P), #21 Nebraska (R), #16 Kansas (R)

Least Balanced:  #13 Oregon (R), #24 Missouri (P), #7 USC (R),  #11 Miami (P), #3 Alabama (R), #19 Oklahoma (P), #1 Florida (R), #10 TCU (R), #22 Georgia Tech (R), #4 LSU (P)

Defense

Most Balanced:  Miami (R), #18 BYU (P), Ohio State (R), South Carolina (R), Mississippi (P), Oklahoma State (P), Cincinnati (P), #17 Auburn (P), Florida (P), #5 Virginia Tech (P)

Least Balanced:  Oklahoma (R), Iowa (R), USC (P), #2 Texas (R), Nebraska (P), TCU (R), Kansas (R), Georgia Tech (R), Penn State (R), South Florida (P)

Overall

Most Balanced:  Oklahoma State (D), Cincinnati (D), Georgia Tech (O), Miami (D), Oregon (D), Boise State (O), Alabama (D), Virginia Tech (D), Missouri (D), BYU (O)

Least Balanced:  USC (D), Oklahoma (D), Iowa (D), Florida (D), Nebraska (D), Texas (D), Mississippi (D), Penn State (D), TCU (D), South Florida (D)

On Sunday night, the Steelers bounced back from a disappointing loss to the Bengals in Wacky Week 3 by abusing the Chargers on their way to a 21-0 halftime lead. Midway through the third quarter, Pittsburgh upped the lead to 28 and holstered their hammer, all nails sufficiently driven into San Diego’s coffin.

Or not.

Scoring for the first time with just a minute and a half remaining, the Chargers forced their way back into the game, and were down by just seven points with over four minutes remaining. The defense could not handle the Steelers’ running game, though, and a Jeff Reed field goal closed out the scoring at 38-28, as Philip Rivers was sacked and fumbled away the ball on the first play of the ensuing drive.

Elsewhere, San Francisco shut out the hapless St. Louis Rams, 35-0. Dallas failed to score in the final three quarters in a 17-10 loss to unbeaten Denver. New Orleans continues to impress, winning a battle of 3-0 teams by besting the NY Jets, 24-10. Washington rebounded (kind of) from their loss to the sad Detroit Lions by barely beating even sadder Tampa Bay, 16-13. The Patriots dealt the Ravens their first loss, 27-21. Tennessee continued their shocking slump, losing to Jacksonville, 37-17. The Bengals avoided confusing Donovan McNabb by beating the Browns in the final seconds of overtime.

Lions QB Matt Stafford has pulled himself out of the clutches of the QB quicksand, or more likely he was dislodged by Cleveland’s Disastrous Duo of Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson.  As Stafford forges ahead without former mediocrity-mates Jake Delhomme and JaMarcus Russell, the bottom three QBs (consider the Browns signal-obstructer to be a lumbering, easily-baffled hybrid beast named Braderek Quinderson) have thrown 5 TDs and 18 INTs so far this year.

The New Orleans Saints are averaging 36 points a game, while the St. Louis Rams are only putting up 6 per outing.  On the defensive side, the Denver Broncos are giving up just 6.5 per game, while the Lions are allowing 33.5.

Undefeated Teams:  Indianapolis Colts, Denver Broncos, New York Giants, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints

Winless Teams:  Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, St. Louis Rams