Who Will Make the Playoffs? (Early Season Projection)
10/05/2009 § Leave a comment
About a month ago, I presented the early results of my point system for evaluating a team’s chances of making it back to the playoffs after making it the previous year. Since then, I’ve expanded the system to include teams who didn’t make the playoffs the previous year, allowing me to project an entire 12-team playoff field.
The expanded system includes a slightly modified evaluation for the teams who didn’t reach the post-season a year ago, and correctly predicted the fates of 14 of 20 teams (70%) from the 2007 to 2008 seasons. Based on this and the success of the original system, I think the overall projection will be quite accurate, especially by the late-season update.
After running the system on the latest numbers and adjusting the results to fit the format of the NFL’s playoff system, the 2009 playoffs should look something like this (I’ve included a few teams that don’t make the system’s field of twelve, but are very close):
AFC Teams: Made Playoffs Last Year – San Diego Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens Did Not Make Playoffs Last Year – Houston Texans, Denver Broncos, New York Jets
NFC Teams: Made Playoffs Last Year – New York Giants, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons Did Not Make Playoffs Last Year – New Orleans Saints, Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears
Teams to Watch: Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys, Washington Redskins, Cincinnati Bengals