NFL Games to Watch: Week Six

It looks like another thin week as far as exciting matchups are concerned.  One thing we’ll get out of this week (along with the next couple) is a better idea of who’s good and who’s bad out of the teams currently huddled up in the middle.

Baltimore @ Minnesota (Sunday, 1:00 ET, CBS)

The Ravens are coming off a heartbreaking loss to division foes Cincinnati and desperately want to revive a suddenly stagnant offense, while the Vikings are trying to stay unbeaten before two consecutive tough road trips to Pittsburgh and Green Bay.  The unit that will decide this game is the Baltimore Ravens Offense.

NFL Week Five in Review

The NFL is a quarterback league, and this week was a firm reminder of that fact.  From amazing performances from young signal-callers to last-minute heroics to what happens when neither team has a viable passer, Week 5 was a QB clinic.

The Chad Henne Era has officially begun in Miami.  In yet another Monday night thriller, the Dolphins QB followed up a nice performance against the Bills with a downright brilliant outing against one of the league’s top 5 pass defenses.  Henne completed almost 77% of his passes for 241 yards, throwing 2 TDs and no INTs.  His 130.4 QB rating was the fourth-best showing of the weekend.

NFL Games to Watch: Week Five

This week’s slate is a little bare, with only a couple games featuring two good teams and a potential train-wreck with teams who are a combined 1-7.  Meanwhile, if you like watching good teams beat the crap out of terrible teams, this weekend offers a nice triple feature.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (Sunday, 1:00 ET, CBS)

The surprising Bengals travel to take on the dominant Ravens in a matchup of two 3-1 teams battling for the top of their division.  Cincinnati is 2-0 on the road and Baltimore is 2-0 at home.  The unit that will decide this game is the Cincinnati Bengals Defense.

UFL Kicks Off Tonight! Cue Crickets.

No, it’s not a new Ultimate Fighting league, but that would probably get better ratings.  While you’re watching Nebraska @ Missouri (or the MLB playoffs, or The Office wedding), people who lost their remotes while watching Whacked Out Sports will witness the debut of the next professional football league to fold within two years.

The UFL, according to its official website, is where future stars come to play, although it looks more like where NFL players who got cut go to try to get uncut.  The most recognizable player on any of the four (yeah, four) teams’ rosters is probably former terrible Bills QB JP Losman.

NFL Week Four in Review

This week, there’s only one place to start: The End. On Monday night, Brett Favre made his point against his old team, completing a stunning 77.4% of his passes for 271 yards and 3 touchdowns to lead the Vikings to a 30-23 win over the Packers. But it’s not like his counterpart/replacement played poorly. Aaron Rodgers connected on a tidy 70.3% of his passes for 384 yards, 2 TDs and 1 pick. In fact, the only major difference in the two QBs performances is the fact that Favre was never sacked, while the Vikings defense got to Rodgers 8 times.

On Sunday night, the Steelers bounced back from a disappointing loss to the Bengals in Wacky Week 3 by abusing the Chargers on their way to a 21-0 halftime lead. Midway through the third quarter, Pittsburgh upped the lead to 28 and holstered their hammer, all nails sufficiently driven into San Diego’s coffin.

Or not.

Scoring for the first time with just a minute and a half remaining, the Chargers forced their way back into the game, and were down by just seven points with over four minutes remaining.

Who Will Make the Playoffs? (Early Season Projection)

About a month ago, I presented the early results of my point system for evaluating a team’s chances of making it back to the playoffs after making it the previous year.  Since then, I’ve expanded the system to include teams who didn’t make the playoffs the previous year, allowing me to project an entire 12-team playoff field.

The expanded system includes a slightly modified evaluation for the teams who didn’t reach the post-season a year ago, and correctly predicted the fates of 14 of 20 teams (70%) from the 2007 to 2008 seasons.  Based on this and the success of the original system, I think the overall projection will be quite accurate, especially by the late-season update.

After running the system on the latest numbers and adjusting the results to fit the format of the NFL’s playoff system, the 2009 playoffs should look something like this (I’ve included a few teams that don’t make the system’s field of twelve, but are very close):

NFL Games to Watch: Week Four

Green Bay @ Minnesota (Monday, 8:30 ET, ESPN)

There are other games on this week, but who cares?  You’re not going to find this kind of intrigue anywhere else this weekend, except maybe Zombieland.  Two years ago, Brett Favre retired from the Packers, but later revealed he felt he was being forced out because he was no longer effective.  Comments about Favre’s future viability may or may not have been made by Packers GM Ted Thompson.

After an unsuccessful attempt to join the Vikings last year, Favre signed with the New York Jets and started off 7-4 before a suffering a shoulder injury that may have contributed to a five-game losing streak to end the season.

Favre retired again last off-season, and this one appeared to be sticking, as Favre remained unsigned and adamant that he would not playing in 2009.  Still, the situation was suspect from the get-go as many believed Favre still had a desire to play for the Vikings under offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, who previously worked with Favre as a QB coach in Green Bay.

NFL Week Three in Review

Week Three played out like a mirror image of Week Two, with 10 of this weekend’s 16 games decided by multiple-possession margins, and six by at least 20 points.  Cleveland got thrashed at Baltimore, losing 34-3 and switching QBs at halftime.

Continuing with the bizarro-week theme, Drew Brees threw no touchdown passes this week after throwing nine in his first two outings, and Adrian Peterson only managed 85 yards against the 49ers, knocking 17 yards off his per-game average.

Oh yeah, and Detroit won.  A football game.  Really.

Unfortunately, the Freaky Weekend craziness didn’t trickle down, and our bottom of the barrel quarterbacking trio of Russell, Delhomme, and Stafford added 2 TDs and 4 INTs to their collective resume, putting them at 5 TDs and 16 INTs through three games.

The Cleveland Browns have given up a league-high 95 points while scoring just 29 (#31).  The Saints have scored 120 points while the Broncos have given up just 16.

NFL Games to Watch: Week Three

Washington @ Detroit (Sunday, 1:00 ET, Fox)

Last week, Washington looked unimpressive in a 9-7 win over the Rams.  Fans are fuming over the lack of offensive production.  Meanwhile, Lions fans would be happy with a 0-0 tie at the end of overtime.  Will Skins backers get their karmic comeuppance in the form of a loss to Detroit?  Watch for about ten minutes until it becomes clear that the answer is “no.”

Tennessee @ New York Jets (Sunday, 1:00 ET, CBS)

The Jets shocked the Patriots last week, and QB Mark Sanchez looks like the real deal.  Handing the pre-season darling Titans their third consecutive loss would add to the youngster’s impressive start.

Kansas City @ Philadelphia (Sunday, 1:00 ET, CBS)

Michael Vick is officially reinstated, and just in time as the Eagles may need him to fill in for Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, and DeSean Jackson, all of whom could miss this game with injuries.  Meanwhile, Matt Cassel continues his contract-justification quest.

NFL Week Two in Review

It was another thrilling week in the NFL, with 10 of the weekend’s 16 games won by a single-possession margin.  Washington won while scoring fewer points than 13 losing teams, the Colts won despite having the ball for under 15 minutes, and the Chargers outgained the Ravens by 163 yards–and lost.

Drew Brees continues his assault on the league, having completed 75% (9.8 yards per attempt) of his passes with 9 TDs and 2 INTs through two games.  Brees, Joe Flacco, and Matt Ryan have now combined for 19 touchdowns and 1,615 yards.

If Adrian Peterson keeps up his current pace of 136 yards a game, he’ll top 2000 before the final regular season game.  If the Vikings make it to the Super Bowl, 2500+ would not be out of the question.

JaMarcus Russell, Jake Delhomme, and Matthew Stafford are still languishing; all three QBs have sub-50 passer ratings and have combined for just 3 TDs and 12 INTs.  Russell has completed a disturbing 35.2% of his passes so far.