NFL Games to Watch: Week Six

It looks like another thin week as far as exciting matchups are concerned.  One thing we’ll get out of this week (along with the next couple) is a better idea of who’s good and who’s bad out of the teams currently huddled up in the middle.

Baltimore @ Minnesota (Sunday, 1:00 ET, CBS)

The Ravens are coming off a heartbreaking loss to division foes Cincinnati and desperately want to revive a suddenly stagnant offense, while the Vikings are trying to stay unbeaten before two consecutive tough road trips to Pittsburgh and Green Bay.  The unit that will decide this game is the Baltimore Ravens Offense.

Pedro the Penny’s Pigskin Prognostication-Palooza: Week Seven

Ouch.

So, yeah, last week didn’t go so well.  I went 2-5, which is bad, but overall I’m still 13-8, a pretty respectable record.  There’s no time to second-guess myself though; I’ve got to just put this stumble behind me and flip on.

Cincinnati @ South Florida:  It’s no secret that this game will likely decide the Big East championship.  Both teams are ranked, undefeated, scoring more 35 and giving up fewer than 14 points a game.  While the Bulls probably can’t make it to the BCS title game, the Bearcats have a shot if they win out.  South Florida by 3.

NFL Week Five in Review

The NFL is a quarterback league, and this week was a firm reminder of that fact.  From amazing performances from young signal-callers to last-minute heroics to what happens when neither team has a viable passer, Week 5 was a QB clinic.

The Chad Henne Era has officially begun in Miami.  In yet another Monday night thriller, the Dolphins QB followed up a nice performance against the Bills with a downright brilliant outing against one of the league’s top 5 pass defenses.  Henne completed almost 77% of his passes for 241 yards, throwing 2 TDs and no INTs.  His 130.4 QB rating was the fourth-best showing of the weekend.

Return to Glory

So far this season, 45 teams have returned either a kickoff or punt for a touchdown.  Among these 45 teams are eight of the current AP Top 10, eleven of the Top 15, and thirteen of the Top 20.  Combined, the 45 teams have a record of 156-95 (62.2%).

When we take out teams that only have a single return touchdown, we are left with 13 teams.  These 13 teams are a combined 53-21 (71.6%) and include three of the Top 4, four of the top 10, and six of the Top 20.  Narrowing the field a little further to just teams that have at least one kick and one punt return touchdown, we get a group of 9 teams that are 37-13 (74%) and lose only #19 Georgia Tech from our group of ranked teams.

NFL Games to Watch: Week Five

This week’s slate is a little bare, with only a couple games featuring two good teams and a potential train-wreck with teams who are a combined 1-7.  Meanwhile, if you like watching good teams beat the crap out of terrible teams, this weekend offers a nice triple feature.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (Sunday, 1:00 ET, CBS)

The surprising Bengals travel to take on the dominant Ravens in a matchup of two 3-1 teams battling for the top of their division.  Cincinnati is 2-0 on the road and Baltimore is 2-0 at home.  The unit that will decide this game is the Cincinnati Bengals Defense.

UFL Kicks Off Tonight! Cue Crickets.

No, it’s not a new Ultimate Fighting league, but that would probably get better ratings.  While you’re watching Nebraska @ Missouri (or the MLB playoffs, or The Office wedding), people who lost their remotes while watching Whacked Out Sports will witness the debut of the next professional football league to fold within two years.

The UFL, according to its official website, is where future stars come to play, although it looks more like where NFL players who got cut go to try to get uncut.  The most recognizable player on any of the four (yeah, four) teams’ rosters is probably former terrible Bills QB JP Losman.

Pedro the Penny’s Pigskin Prognostication-Palooza: Week Six

Awwwwwwww, yeah… I’M BACK!!  I know that someone was expecting me fall flat on my face last week (which I do a lot, statistically as often as I fall flat on my tail) and turn the picks back over to his sorry keister.  He’s SOL, though, ‘cuz I tore it up again last week, going 5-2 and bringing my total to a wicked 11-3.

I know you’re anxious to get to my latest work of genius, but first why not stop on by my brand new Facebook page and add me as a friend?  Now that we’ve got our social networking out of the way, let’s get this show on the road.

FraudWatch

Each year in college football, a handful of teams storm out of the gate with a hot start only to stumble unceremoniously to a mediocre finish.  They are the fraud teams, having accumulated an unblemished record through 4 or 5 weeks either by beating up on overmatched opponents or winning close games over teams that are actually more talented.

For this study, I’ve defined a fraud team as one that starts the season at least 4-0 and finishes with at least 5 losses.  In the past three seasons, 14 teams have met this criteria, all of them from BCS conferences.  These fraud teams tend to have at least one close win (by 7 or fewer points) during their hot start (only 2 of the 14 had no close wins) and their opponents’ winning percentage is usually around 40%.  They also tend suffer their first loss to a good team (average record: 4-1).  The good news is that these teams have all made bowl games and 8 of the 14 won their bowls, with another 3 losing theirs by 3 points or less.

So, who are this year’s fraud teams?

Balancing Act

We hear all the time about “balanced” teams or units.  A program that boasts both a productive offense and a stifling defense is as close to unbeatable as you can get.  An offense that can be effective on the ground as well as through the air is a difficult thing to defend, just as a defense that is stingy in both areas is tricky to attack.

I’ve developed a rating that measures a team’s overall balance between offense and defense and individual balances between rushing and passing on each side of the ball.  Below, I’ve listed the top ten most and least balanced ranked teams in each category.

Rankings are based on current AP poll.  Letter in parentheses indicates direction of imbalance (R-more run, P-more pass, O-better offense, D-better defense)

Offense

Most Balanced:  #9 Ohio State (R), #25 South Carolina(R), #14 Penn State (R), #23 South Florida (P), #5 Boise State (R), #15 Oklahoma State (R), #20 Mississippi (P), #12 Iowa (P), #21 Nebraska (R), #16 Kansas (R)

NFL Week Four in Review

This week, there’s only one place to start: The End. On Monday night, Brett Favre made his point against his old team, completing a stunning 77.4% of his passes for 271 yards and 3 touchdowns to lead the Vikings to a 30-23 win over the Packers. But it’s not like his counterpart/replacement played poorly. Aaron Rodgers connected on a tidy 70.3% of his passes for 384 yards, 2 TDs and 1 pick. In fact, the only major difference in the two QBs performances is the fact that Favre was never sacked, while the Vikings defense got to Rodgers 8 times.

On Sunday night, the Steelers bounced back from a disappointing loss to the Bengals in Wacky Week 3 by abusing the Chargers on their way to a 21-0 halftime lead. Midway through the third quarter, Pittsburgh upped the lead to 28 and holstered their hammer, all nails sufficiently driven into San Diego’s coffin.

Or not.

Scoring for the first time with just a minute and a half remaining, the Chargers forced their way back into the game, and were down by just seven points with over four minutes remaining.