Pedro the Penny’s Pigskin Prognostication-Palooza: Week Seven

Ouch.

So, yeah, last week didn’t go so well.  I went 2-5, which is bad, but overall I’m still 13-8, a pretty respectable record.  There’s no time to second-guess myself though; I’ve got to just put this stumble behind me and flip on.

Cincinnati @ South Florida:  It’s no secret that this game will likely decide the Big East championship.  Both teams are ranked, undefeated, scoring more 35 and giving up fewer than 14 points a game.  While the Bulls probably can’t make it to the BCS title game, the Bearcats have a shot if they win out.  South Florida by 3.

Return to Glory

So far this season, 45 teams have returned either a kickoff or punt for a touchdown.  Among these 45 teams are eight of the current AP Top 10, eleven of the Top 15, and thirteen of the Top 20.  Combined, the 45 teams have a record of 156-95 (62.2%).

When we take out teams that only have a single return touchdown, we are left with 13 teams.  These 13 teams are a combined 53-21 (71.6%) and include three of the Top 4, four of the top 10, and six of the Top 20.  Narrowing the field a little further to just teams that have at least one kick and one punt return touchdown, we get a group of 9 teams that are 37-13 (74%) and lose only #19 Georgia Tech from our group of ranked teams.

Pedro the Penny’s Pigskin Prognostication-Palooza: Week Six

Awwwwwwww, yeah… I’M BACK!!  I know that someone was expecting me fall flat on my face last week (which I do a lot, statistically as often as I fall flat on my tail) and turn the picks back over to his sorry keister.  He’s SOL, though, ‘cuz I tore it up again last week, going 5-2 and bringing my total to a wicked 11-3.

I know you’re anxious to get to my latest work of genius, but first why not stop on by my brand new Facebook page and add me as a friend?  Now that we’ve got our social networking out of the way, let’s get this show on the road.

FraudWatch

Each year in college football, a handful of teams storm out of the gate with a hot start only to stumble unceremoniously to a mediocre finish.  They are the fraud teams, having accumulated an unblemished record through 4 or 5 weeks either by beating up on overmatched opponents or winning close games over teams that are actually more talented.

For this study, I’ve defined a fraud team as one that starts the season at least 4-0 and finishes with at least 5 losses.  In the past three seasons, 14 teams have met this criteria, all of them from BCS conferences.  These fraud teams tend to have at least one close win (by 7 or fewer points) during their hot start (only 2 of the 14 had no close wins) and their opponents’ winning percentage is usually around 40%.  They also tend suffer their first loss to a good team (average record: 4-1).  The good news is that these teams have all made bowl games and 8 of the 14 won their bowls, with another 3 losing theirs by 3 points or less.

So, who are this year’s fraud teams?

Balancing Act

We hear all the time about “balanced” teams or units.  A program that boasts both a productive offense and a stifling defense is as close to unbeatable as you can get.  An offense that can be effective on the ground as well as through the air is a difficult thing to defend, just as a defense that is stingy in both areas is tricky to attack.

I’ve developed a rating that measures a team’s overall balance between offense and defense and individual balances between rushing and passing on each side of the ball.  Below, I’ve listed the top ten most and least balanced ranked teams in each category.

Rankings are based on current AP poll.  Letter in parentheses indicates direction of imbalance (R-more run, P-more pass, O-better offense, D-better defense)

Offense

Most Balanced:  #9 Ohio State (R), #25 South Carolina(R), #14 Penn State (R), #23 South Florida (P), #5 Boise State (R), #15 Oklahoma State (R), #20 Mississippi (P), #12 Iowa (P), #21 Nebraska (R), #16 Kansas (R)

Underrated/Overrated Teams So Far

Every week, college football fans open up their sports pages (or sports webpages, more likely) and scan the latest incarnations of the three major polls:  the AP poll, the USA Today/Coaches poll, and the Harris Interactive poll.  The former is the most respected, while the latter two are the most important, as they will eventually make up two-thirds of the destiny-altering BCS Rankings.  Examining the polls is always an exercise in frustration, with at least two or three coffee-spewing frauds or oversights per week.  In case you haven’t had the time to peruse them for yourself (or if you’re running low on coffee), here are a few teams I see as under- or overrated in this week’s polls:

Underrated:

The Wisconsin Badgers are 5-0, but apparently their narrow escapes against Minnesota and Fresno State have the voters a little wary.  They sit at #25 in both the Coaches and Harris polls, but just missed out on the AP (if the poll was extended, they would be #26).  The Badgers have two tough tests coming up in Ohio State and Iowa, but taking at least 3 of their last 5 should be no problem, and all 5 are winnable.

Week Five Picks

Last week, I risked humiliation by putting my own picks up against those of 41 cents.  I proved to be too much for thirty-five of those cents as my admittedly weak 3-4 record bested that of the quarter (1-6) and the dime (2-5).  I tied with the nickel, which I guess is some sort of depressing moral victory.  My overall record now stands at 14-16 and simple mediocrity continues to elude me.

Now let’s move on to the big news:  You may have noticed that the performance of one of last week’s pickers was omitted above.  That’s because I felt it deserved more than just a brief mention, as the penny went an astounding 6-1 last week, missing only Iowa’s upset of Penn State.  Now, I know you’re all way more interested to see if a tiny circle made almost entirely of zinc can work its magic again than you are in whatever ill-considered predictions I might come up with, so I’m now turning the remainder of this post over to the penny.

Pedro the Penny’s
Pigskin
Prognostication-Palooza

Finally!  I thought that guy was gonna keep stinkin’ it up all season.  Let’s get to work with my one cent worth on this week’s big games.

The Preseason Poll – Put it Out of its Misery

Week four of the 2009 college football season just wrapped up, and even though it’s been a little crazy, there are still 17 undefeated FBS teams.  Of those 17, just 7 appeared in the preseason edition of the USA Today/Coaches’ Poll Top 25, the one that actually counts for something.  Even now, there are still 5 undefeated teams who somehow aren’t good enough to appear in the top 25, simply because they weren’t there to begin with.

Florida and Texas opened the season at #1 and #2, respectively.  They are still there, and they’re the only two teams with first-place votes in the current coaches’ poll.  In 8 games between them, they’ve beaten three teams from BCS conferences (two of those by just 10 points each).  Their 8 opponents are a combined 14-17, and none of them were ranked when they played the Gators or the Longhorns.

South Florida has a few blowout wins over some pretty weak teams.  They also have a nice ten-point road upset of Florida State, who was ranked 18th going into the game.  However, they have the misfortune of playing in the Big East, which saw none of its teams ranked to begin the season.  Why aren’t they in the Top 25 anyway?

Early Season Reports – Big East

Cincinnati

Recap:  After blowing out Rutgers and Southeast Missouri State and, Cincinnati posted a huge road win over Oregon State.

Stats so far:  Cincy ranks 40^th with 4.76 yards per rush attempt and 14^th with 9 yards per passing attempt.  Overall, they have averaged 48.3 points and 516.7 yards on offense per game.  Defensively, they are 10^th with 2.06 yards allowed per rush attempt and 27^th with 5.5 yards allowed per pass attempt.  Overall, they have allowed 12 points and 271 yards per game.

Coming up:  Cincinnati will try stay unbeaten against dangerous Fresno State, followed by road trips to Miami (OH) and South Florida, both of which the Bearcats should handle easily.

Connecticut

Recap:  A 2-point loss to North Carolina is the only blemish with wins over Ohio and Baylor.

Stats so far: UConn is 64^th with 3.99 yards per rush attempt and 105^th with 5.5 yards per passing attempt.  Overall, they have scored 21 points and gained 321.3 yards on offense per game.  

Early Season Reports – WAC

Boise State

Recap:  Boise State is in good position for another undefeated season, with a 3-0 start that includes wins over Oregon, Miami (OH) and Fresno State.

Stats so far:  Boise ranks 29^th with 5.04 yards per rush attempt and 34^th with 8 yards per passing attempt.  Overall, they have averaged 39.3 points and 427.3 yards on offense per game.  Defensively, they are 101^st with 4.74 yards allowed per rush attempt and 11^th with 4.8 yards allowed per pass attempt.  Overall, they have allowed 14 points and 284.3 yards per game.

Coming up:  With a couple of tough games behind them, the Broncos look to continue winning and rising in games against Bowling Green, California-Davis and Tulsa.

Fresno State

Recap:  After blowing out California-Davis, Fresno nearly pulled off an overtime upset of Wisconsin then got blasted by Boise State.

Stats so far: FSU is 6^th with 6.22 yards per rush attempt and 25^th with 8.4 yards per passing attempt.  Overall, they have scored 38.7 points and gained 495.3 yards on offense per game.